Alberta real estate news article for Grande Prairie and area
Reviewed by Moishe Alexander.
EDMONTON – Don Campbell couldn’t believe a recent scene among wannabe
real estate investors at the corner of Yonge and Bloor streets in Toronto, site
of a planned condominium complex.
“People slept there overnight for four nights,” said Campbell, president of
the Calgary-based Real Estate Investment Network and author of 51 Success
Stories from Canadian Real Estate Investors. “A sign up above read
‘$500,000 to $1.3 million,’ although you could go across the street and buy
something very similar for $425,000. Then the developer had the gall to
paste a six over the five to make it ‘$600,000 to $1.3 million,’ and the crowd
cheered, saying ‘Look, it’s going up.’ There was even a fight in the line.
“When you line up around a block with 200 people to buy the condo in the
sky that doesn’t exist yet, put $20,000 down and plan to sell it as soon as
it’s built, look in the lineup and tell me how many people have the exact
same mentality. Then all you need is for one guy to panic and drop his price
to get out, and the average price in the whole building goes down, and
you’re completely at the whim of somebody else. You should only line up for
U2 tickets.”
Campbell is concerned about novice investors not researching what they’re
buying and what the market potential is. The most common mistakes are
investing for the short term, getting emotionally too high or too low as
markets move up and down, and buying the wrong property.
“If you don’t have a long-term outlook, don’t invest in real estate, go buy
gold or stocks and roll your dice. You have to make real estate boring,
because that means you’re doing it right. Go jump out of an airplane with a
parachute if you want excitement. Right now I am telling everybody to buy
resale, to buy something built in 1997 or 1998, when there wasn’t a frenzy
and people had the time to finish the properties.”
Campbell is thankful the days of 38-and 42-per-cent annual price increases
in Alberta real estate are over.
“If I can find a market that gives me an eight-per-cent increase every year
and I’m putting 25 per cent down, that means I’m getting 33-per-cent
return on my money on a capital gains basis, and it’s not a frenzy.”
http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=d905a8a1-8ec9-4f83-a109-90258db991e1&k=12425 (1 of 3)2/22/2008 9:37:04 AM
Print Story – canada.com network
He said Edmonton’s housing prices, which fell 11.7 per cent during the last
half of 2007, will dip again this spring, then rebound during the second half
and be up 11 per cent on average during 2008. Calgary prices will be up 12
per cent, Red Deer 10 per cent and Grande Prairie 11 or 12 per cent.
“But in 2009, Grande Prairie and Peace River are going to go through the
roof. There’s going to be a natural gas renaissance. If we’re not drilling the
wells today, we’re not going to have supply, and gas is going to go up to
$8.50 or $9, and therefore make the drilling go again.”
Alberta’s wealth will affect its neighbouring provinces.
“A lot of Albertans have made a lot of money in Alberta and they’re throwing
it at places; there’s no way economic fundamentals are driving Saskatoon
prices up 38 or 40 per cent year after year. Average weekly earnings are
down in Saskatchewan compared to Alberta. Can you do well in
Saskatchewan — I think so, but I don’t know so; in Alberta I know so.
“In B.C., it takes 73 per cent of your average income to buy an average
house in Vancouver. I love Fort St. John and Dawson Creek as an
investment in B.C. I’d be careful about most other regions. We’re picking
Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Maple Ridge as the big winners in the Lower
Mainland. Vancouver Island I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole unless I’m
in Courtenay-Comox, which is serviced by WestJet and easy to get to by
wealthy Albertans. And right now I wouldn’t touch a town that’s only
forestry, because this pine beetle thing is massive — the Williams Lake,
Quesnel, Prince George corridor is going to be devastated.”
Campbell sees another hot spot in Canada.
“The Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area in Ontario, which we call the
economic Alberta of Ontario, is driven not by automotives but by
universities, and it’s going to do incredibly well.”
Campbell says he wouldn’t buy real estate in the U. S. until next February.
“We haven’t seen anywhere near the full drop — especially in the Phoenix,
Vegas, Florida areas. The foreclosures will start peaking around October,
which is about three months after the peak of the (mortgage interest rate)
resets. Then the foreclosures have to get on the market and drive the prices
down. If you’re just going to go buy and live there, go do it. But if you’re
going to do a quick flip or have renters in it, I think you’re way too early,
especially if you’re going to finance it. The dollar’s going to be around 90 to
$1.10 for quite a while.”
Ray Turchansky, a freelance writer and income tax preparer, writes
Wednesdays and Saturdays in The Journal. He may be contacted at
turchan@telusplanet.net
© The Edmonton Journal 2008
http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=d905a8a1-8ec9-4f83-a109-90258db991e1&k=12425 (2 of 3)2/22/2008 9:37:04 AM
Print Story – canada.com network
Copyright © 2008 CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.
CanWest Interactive, a division of CanWest MediaWorks Publications, Inc.. All rights reserved.
http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=d905a8a1-8ec9-4f83-a109-90258db991e1&k=12425 (3 of 3)2/22/2008 9:37:04 AM