The report compared census data from Statistics Canada from 2001 and 2006, when the housing boom was near its peak and unemployment was low.

The report indicates that in 2006, 72 per cent of immigrants lived in an owned home. That’s compared with 68 per cent in 2001, an increase of four percentage points.

At the same time, the percentage of Canadian-born people choosing home ownership over renting rose by only two percentage points to 75 per cent, up from 73 per cent.

“Homeownership tends to increase the longer one has lived in Canada, with the majority of new arrivals first settling in rental accommodation,” Adrienne Warren, a senior economist with Scotia Economics, said in a release.

“Over time, immigrant families eventually make the move to homeownership, at rates similar to the Canadian-born population. However, between 2001 and 2006, the homeownership rate rose for all immigrant groups, regardless of how long they had resided in Canada. The biggest increase was among those living in Canada for less than 10 years.”

Warren said the faster transition to home ownership was likely due to two factors.

“I think it’s that we’ve had a very strong job market, and that has allowed people to make the step from being a renter to homeowner perhaps faster than in the past,” she said.

“I think it also has to relate to mortgage [and] market conditions, [and] the fact that we’ve had historically low mortgage rates that has made buying a home cheaper.”

Because the analysis was based on data from 2001 and 2006, it was unclear what effect the current recession might be having on the number of immigrants and others entering the housing market.

It was clear from the report, however, that Scotiabank expects that trend in real estate to continue.

“Given Canada’s aging population and relatively low fertility rates, longer-term household formation and housing needs will be largely determined by immigration,” Warren said.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/07/09/bc-canadian-immigrants-housing-scotiabank.html

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

Heather Scoffield – Ottawa

Central bank will ‘choke nascent rebound, Sheryl King predicts in her first Canadian forecast

Central bank will ‘choke’ nascent rebound, Sheryl King predicts in her first Canadian forecast

The new chief economist for Merrill Lynch Canada has finally landed and published a forecast that is significantly more optimistic about the Canadian economy in the short run, but less enthusiastic for next year.

Sheryl King, who was a senior U.S. economist for the firm but moved to Toronto last week, believes the Canadian economy has begun to grow and will pick up strength throughout the rest of the year.

But she also projects that the Bank of Canada will get carried away with the surge in growth, scale back its economy-fuelling measures too fast, and undermine the recovery.

“It will choke off growth,” Ms. King said in an interview. “The upturn in the economy will be very short-lived indeed”.

Ms. King sees a 1.8 per cent contraction of the Canadian economy in the second quarter, at annualized rates, but a 1.3 per cent expansion in the third quarter, and a 3.8 per cent pace in the fourth quarter.

The bounce tapers off quickly, however, and she sees the Canadian economy barely moving by the end of 2010, at a 1.5 per cent annual pace.

Overall, she forecasts a 2 per cent decline in output in 2009, followed by a 2.7 per cent expansion in 2010, with monetary policy being the key driver of how the Canadian recovery takes shape.

The previous Merrill Lynch Canada forecast, authored by David Wolf who has moved to the Bank of Canada, projected a 2.7 per cent contraction in 2009 and a 2.3 per cent rebound next year.

“All of it will depend on how well policy is steered,” Ms. King said, explaining why she made the changes.

The Bank of Canada “overreacted” to the global financial crisis by taking interest rates too low and making credit too easy, she argued. And as the Canadian and global economies begin to recover, the central bank will likely overdo it again, and withdraw its support too fast.

The key mistake by the Bank of Canada was assuming that the credit crunch that has plagued the U.S. economy exists here as well, she said. But in Canada, low interest rates are very effective, fuelling the housing market, real estate, business investment and consumers’ buying intentions.

“We’re seeing a lot of interest-rate response that’s percolating beneath the surface”.

If commercial banks aren’t lending, it’s because they are acting prudently in the face of a “plain, old-fashioned recession” and not because they’re strapped for cash.

Once the central bank sees the pick-up in growth, it will get nervous about its commitment to keep interest rates low for a long time – a nervousness that will likely drive up long-term interest rates, she said.

Lending conditions will probably start to tighten, but the Canadian recovery and global growth will still be too fragile to resume robust growth without the support of the central bank, she argued.

“This is not really a bullish scenario,” she said. Policy makers “are trying to get in front of a huge freight train, and they’re throwing all that they can in front of it. And to some extent, they’re going to be successful. But ultimately, there are still underlying problems, especially in the global economy”.

Ms. King’s U.S. counterparts at Banc of America Securities/Merrill Lynch have recently revised up their forecast for the U.S. economy as well. They now expect a 2.1 per cent contraction followed by a 2.6 per cent expansion next year, instead of a 2.4 per cent contraction followed by a 1.8 per cent expansion.

But much of that growth comes from fiscal and monetary stimulus aimed at the domestic economy, and probably won’t help Canada much, Ms. King said.

Still, it’s not all bad news for Canada. The unemployment rate will probably peak in the next few months at below nine per cent, she projected, and then slowly edge back down to just above eight per cent by next year.

http://luishipolito.wordpress.com/2009/07/06/canadas-economic-bounce-will-be-short-lived-merrill-lynch-says/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

Wow, wow, wow is all I can say. We are supposed to be in a down time yet Ford goes and does this………..Ford Motor Car of Canada sold 27,408 vehicles in June which was a 25-per-cent jump on sales in June, 2008, and the first year-over-year sales increase it has posted in 2009!

The engine that could……..choo choo……….Ford never quit. Amazing, yet true! See what happens when one doesn’t give up? Think of all those people that quit advertising, quit working, and just plain gave up because the media told them that the market was bad. Good for Ford.

Today in the USA they talked about a recovery that is, a jobless recovery. Wow, a little bit of a paradox to be sure. I don’t understand it but it becomes a recovery and if it works for us call it what you will?

Here is a story on Toronto’s house markets as of May. (Link for the CTV site is below.)

It states, “May was the strongest month ever for sales of luxury homes in the Greater Toronto Area, according to RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada.

In that month, 273 homes were sold for more than $1 million each, compared to 258 sold in the same month one year earlier — a difference of 6 per cent.

“What we are seeing is confidence is returning to the marketplace, and there are some market dynamics that are in place with consumers returning to this level of the marketplace,” said Christine Martysiewicz, of RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic.

“There is a shortage of inventory and there is pent-up demand, so that is all a sign of the current market conditions out there.”

The previous record for luxury home sales in the GTA was set in May 2007, when 266 homes were sold for over $1 million.

The new record marks the highest number of luxury home sales in the history of the Toronto Real Estate Board.

One of the homes sold last month was located on the city’s prestigious Bridle Path and was priced at over $13 million. It was the first sale of a home for over $10 million in more than a year, in the GTA.”

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20090612/toronto_home_sales_090612/20090612?hub=TorontoHome

Holy hot Tamale indeed! Call Howard for his thoughts on investing in Canada at 403 630 4544 or at howardmanley@shaw.ca, or Darwin at darwin@redevproperties.com.

http://investmentsincanada.blogspot.com/2009/07/holy-hot-tamale-by-richard-crenian.html

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

We are told that these are oceanfront condominiums and will be the tallest building on the Island.

Kirana is an Indian word meaning “ray of light”.

The new highrise will hold 3, 4 and 5 bedroom condominium residences and penthouse units.

Apparently MLS sales for South Padre Island exceeded 2008 which is a good sign for South Padre. The influx of cash has come from Mexico, Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio.

Did we mention that this was a beachfront property? Canadian Funding Corporation says: “WOW!”

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